What Order to Draft in Fantasy Football: A Symphony of Strategy and Serendipity

Fantasy football is a game of strategy, luck, and a dash of chaos. The draft is where it all begins, and the order in which you select your players can make or break your season. But what is the best order to draft in fantasy football? Should you go for the running backs first, or is it better to secure a top-tier quarterback? Let’s dive into the myriad of strategies, opinions, and wild theories that surround this crucial aspect of fantasy football.
The Running Back Conundrum
The Case for Early Running Backs
Running backs are often considered the backbone of any fantasy football team. They are typically the highest-scoring players, and having a reliable RB can provide a solid foundation for your team. The logic is simple: running backs are scarce, and the difference between a top-tier RB and a mid-tier one can be substantial. If you can secure two elite running backs early in the draft, you’re setting yourself up for success.
The Risk of Early Running Backs
However, the running back position is also one of the most volatile. Injuries are common, and a star RB can quickly become a liability if they go down. Additionally, the rise of committee backfields in the NFL means that even if you draft a starting RB, they might not get the volume of touches you’re hoping for. This risk has led some fantasy managers to pivot away from the traditional RB-heavy strategy.
The Quarterback Quandary
The Elite Quarterback Argument
Quarterbacks are the highest-scoring players in fantasy football, but the difference between the top QBs and the middle-tier ones isn’t as pronounced as it is with running backs. That said, having an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen can give you a significant advantage. These players can single-handedly win you weeks with their ability to rack up points through both passing and rushing.
The Late-Round Quarterback Strategy
On the flip side, many fantasy experts advocate for waiting on a quarterback. The thinking here is that while elite QBs are great, you can often find value in the middle to late rounds. Players like Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford might not have the same upside as Mahomes, but they can still provide solid production at a fraction of the cost. This strategy allows you to focus on other positions early in the draft, potentially giving you a more balanced team.
The Wide Receiver Debate
The Rise of the Wide Receiver
In recent years, wide receivers have become increasingly valuable in fantasy football. The NFL has shifted towards a more pass-heavy approach, and elite WRs like Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill can put up monster numbers. Drafting a top-tier wide receiver early can give you a reliable source of points, especially in PPR (points per reception) leagues.
The Depth at Wide Receiver
One of the arguments against drafting wide receivers early is the depth at the position. While there are certainly elite options, the difference between a top-10 WR and a top-20 WR isn’t as stark as it is with running backs. This depth allows you to wait on the position and still find quality starters in the middle rounds.
The Tight End Tightrope
The Travis Kelce Effect
Travis Kelce has revolutionized the tight end position in fantasy football. He’s essentially a wide receiver in a tight end’s body, and drafting him early can give you a massive advantage at a position that’s typically thin. If you can secure Kelce or another elite TE like George Kittle or Darren Waller, you’re essentially getting a WR1 at the TE spot.
The Wait-and-See Approach
However, the drop-off after the top few tight ends is steep. If you miss out on Kelce or Kittle, you might be better off waiting until the later rounds to address the position. There are always a few breakout TEs each year, and you can often find value in the middle to late rounds.
The Flex Factor
The Importance of Flexibility
The flex position adds an extra layer of strategy to your draft. Whether you choose to start a RB, WR, or even a TE in your flex spot can depend on your roster construction and weekly matchups. Having a deep bench with multiple viable flex options can give you the flexibility to adapt to injuries, bye weeks, and unfavorable matchups.
The Risk of Overloading One Position
One common mistake is overloading on one position early in the draft, leaving you thin elsewhere. For example, if you draft three running backs in the first three rounds, you might find yourself scrambling to find quality wide receivers later on. Balance is key, and having a mix of RBs, WRs, and a top-tier QB or TE can give you a more well-rounded team.
The Defense and Kicker Conundrum
The Late-Round Special Teams Strategy
Defense and kickers are typically the last positions drafted in fantasy football. The thinking here is that these positions are highly unpredictable from year to year, and the difference between the top options and the middle-tier ones isn’t significant enough to warrant an early pick. Instead, most managers opt to stream these positions week-to-week based on matchups.
The Case for a Top Defense
That said, there are some defenses that are consistently strong year after year, like the Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens. If you can secure one of these elite defenses late in the draft, it can give you a slight edge. However, this strategy is more about personal preference than necessity.
The Importance of ADP (Average Draft Position)
Understanding ADP
ADP, or Average Draft Position, is a crucial tool in fantasy football drafting. It gives you an idea of where players are typically being drafted, allowing you to gauge when you might need to reach for a player or when you can afford to wait. Understanding ADP can help you maximize value and avoid reaching for players too early.
The Pitfalls of ADP
However, ADP isn’t foolproof. It’s based on historical data and can be influenced by hype, injuries, and other factors. Blindly following ADP can lead to missed opportunities or overpaying for players. It’s important to use ADP as a guide, not a rule.
The Role of Mock Drafts
The Value of Mock Drafts
Mock drafts are an invaluable tool for fantasy football managers. They allow you to practice different strategies, get a feel for player ADP, and identify potential sleepers or busts. The more mock drafts you do, the more comfortable you’ll be with the flow of the draft and the better prepared you’ll be for the real thing.
The Limitations of Mock Drafts
That said, mock drafts aren’t perfect. They don’t account for the unpredictability of a live draft, where managers might reach for players or make unexpected picks. Additionally, mock drafts can’t simulate the pressure of a real draft, where every pick feels crucial.
The Sleepers and Busts
Identifying Sleepers
Sleepers are players who are being drafted later than their potential suggests. Identifying sleepers can give you a significant advantage, as these players can outperform their ADP and provide excellent value. Look for players in new situations, coming off injuries, or with high upside but low risk.
Avoiding Busts
Busts are players who are being drafted too high relative to their expected production. Avoiding busts is just as important as finding sleepers, as drafting a bust can set your team back significantly. Be wary of players with injury concerns, declining production, or unfavorable situations.
The Impact of Bye Weeks
Planning for Bye Weeks
Bye weeks are an often-overlooked aspect of fantasy football drafting. If too many of your players have the same bye week, you could find yourself at a significant disadvantage that week. While it’s not necessary to avoid all players with the same bye week, it’s something to keep in mind when making your picks.
The Flexibility of Bye Weeks
That said, bye weeks shouldn’t dictate your entire draft strategy. The season is long, and you can often navigate bye weeks through trades, waivers, and smart roster management. Don’t pass on a player you love just because they share a bye week with another starter.
The Final Word
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to the question of what order to draft in fantasy football. The best strategy depends on your league settings, scoring format, and personal preferences. Whether you go RB-heavy, wait on a quarterback, or prioritize wide receivers, the key is to stay flexible and adapt to the flow of the draft. Remember, fantasy football is as much about luck as it is about strategy, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and trust your instincts.
Related Q&A
Q: Should I always draft a running back in the first round? A: Not necessarily. While running backs are valuable, the best strategy depends on your league settings and the flow of the draft. If elite wide receivers or quarterbacks are available, they can also be strong first-round picks.
Q: How important is it to draft a top-tier tight end? A: It depends on the scoring format. In leagues where tight ends score more points, having an elite TE like Travis Kelce can be a significant advantage. However, in standard leagues, you might be better off waiting and finding value later in the draft.
Q: Is it worth drafting a defense or kicker early? A: Generally, no. Defense and kicker performance is highly unpredictable, and the difference between the top options and the middle-tier ones isn’t significant enough to warrant an early pick. Most managers opt to stream these positions week-to-week.
Q: How can I identify sleepers in my draft? A: Look for players in new situations, coming off injuries, or with high upside but low risk. Pay attention to training camp reports, preseason performances, and expert analysis to identify potential sleepers.
Q: What should I do if my top picks get injured? A: Injuries are an unfortunate part of fantasy football. The key is to stay active on the waiver wire, make smart trades, and adapt your strategy as needed. Don’t panic—injuries can create opportunities to find breakout players.